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Held over two sessions, this new, live online workshop will introduce real estate investment professionals to the theory and practical use of Crystal Ball software in conjunction with Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. Oracle Crystal Ball uses Monte Carlo simulation (stochastic processes) within new and existing Excel spreadsheet models and can quantify and visually display return distributions. For example, the analysis will present internal rate of return (IRR) as not just a single most likely point estimate (such as 18 percent), but also provide the statistical certainty of that estimate, such as IRR will be between 16 and 20 percent, with 75 percent confidence.

Crystal Ball will be added to existing spreadsheets provided by the instructor, and multiple analyses will be run to demonstrate the operation and capabilities of the software. At the conclusion of the second session, participants will have an intermediate level of understanding of Oracle Crystal Ball software and will be fully able to interpret the results of various analytical tools within the software package.

Persons enrolling in this program will receive a complimentary six-month subscription to Oracle Crystal Ball software. Those enrolling should be familiar with basic Excel commands and spreadsheet construction, and have a basic understanding of statistics.

PLEASE NOTE: Oracle Crystal Ball software is a Windows-only product, and not designed to run on a Mac operating system. Participants attending this program are advised to use a Windows-based operating system.

Course Outline

Session 1: April 23, 2012    1:30–3:30 p.m. ET

Session highlights

• Theoretical understanding of stochastic processes, i.e., Monte Carlo simulation.
• Ability to state, “The IRR with will be x percent with 95% confidence,” or “The IRR will be between y percent and z percent, with 90 percent confidence.” Note: confidence is based on the quality and limitation(s) of the inputs to any model.
• Understanding of specific Crystal Ball software drop-down menus required to use Monte Carlo simulation to quantify risk.
• Understanding of language and concepts within Crystal Ball software in real estate.
  
• Understanding of the basics provided in the full report produced by Crystal Ball.

Session 2: April 25, 2012    1:30–3:30 p.m. ET

Session highlights

• Completed addition of Crystal Ball component to existing spreadsheet models.
• Intermediate understanding of Crystal Ball functions, uses, and interpretation.
• Ability to not just state “Project returns are x percent with 90 percent confidence,” but also to visually demonstrate the distribution using Crystal Ball software.

Who should attend:

• real estate financial analysts
• deal makers
• investment officers
• developers

Instructor

Roger Staiger is managing director for Stage Capital LLC, an international real estate advisory firm providing expertise to clients in areas of global portfolio management and asset repositioning. Staiger, through Stage Capital, has successfully repositioned over $500 million in distressed and inefficient real estate projects globally. During his 20-year career, Staiger has worked in a number of industries at senior levels. He was managing director for Constellation Energy’s retail commodity division, CFO for America’s Best Builder 2006, and a portfolio manager for a large commingled pension fund in New York. Staiger holds multiple degrees, including a BS in electrical engineering, an MBA in investments, an MA in international transactions, and an MS in finance. He holds faculty positions in the real estate departments at Georgetown University, Homburg Academy (Canada and Switzerland), and Johns Hopkins University. Staiger makes numerous capital market and economic presentations to organizations internationally. He also appears regularly on television and is often quoted in national periodicals and local newspapers.