Pro Forma Modeling a Single-Family-Home Community: ULI Online Live Workshop
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Held over four sessions, this new online live program will focus on developing a single-family residential builder pro forma. The program will model and value a 50-lot single-family-home community. The model will assume the developer/builder is working with finished lots. Unlike a typical commercial model, this model does not include construction of an amortization table; instead, a residential builder uses a rolling facility. This construct will be explained in detail in session three of the course.
Each session of the workshop will build on the previous one, with each participant having a completed pro forma model at the conclusion. To avoid the possibility of anyone falling behind, the completed stages will be distributed the evening before each session.
Note: This program is designed to be interactive. The instructor will be available by e-mail between sessions to assist participants. However, if you cannot attend a particular session, it will be recorded and available to download and view at your convenience.
Session 1: July 16, 2013 1:30–3:30 p.m. ET
The program will begin by reviewing the structure for a residential builder, including lot take-down (the program assumes use of finished lots), schedule, and valuation. Data sheets will be provided for use in later stages of development for this program to ease data entry and better facilitate model building.
Session 2: July 18, 2013 1:30–3:30 p.m. ET
The second session will focus on development of the schedule for lot take-downs and house starts and completions. The percentage draw for bank lending and for completion will be modeled in a schedule sheet.
Session 3: July 23, 2013 1:30–3:30 p.m. ET
This session will focus on developing the economic pages for the pro forma model. The revenue/expense page summary will be constructed. In addition, the income statement and cash flow (in/out) pages will be developed from which valuations will be completed. The data pages provided earlier will be incorporated into the model at this point. These pages include hard-cost house pricing, recordation table, a sales and marketing budget, and a production overhead budget.
Session 4: July 25, 2013 1:30–3:30 p.m. ET
The final session will focus on the complete cash flow for the project from "cradle to grave." A final valuation summary will be completed, demonstrating sensitivities to lot take-down velocity. The model will be reviewed in total, with each segment addressed to demonstrate how capital is used.
Further, demonstration of how to scale this model to a 500-plus-unit PUD will be provided. Additional items of expansion and complexity (e.g.. waterfalls) will be discussed as well.
Roger P. Staiger
Stage Capital, LLC
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